Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,594
2 New Jersey 15,755
3 Massachusetts 11,383
4 Rhode Island 10,808
5 Connecticut 9,470
6 District of Columbia 9,052
7 Louisiana 6,843
8 Delaware 6,741
9 Illinois 6,244
10 Maryland 5,538
11 Michigan 4,758
12 Pennsylvania 4,730
13 Nebraska 4,433
14 South Dakota 4,085
15 Iowa 3,921
16 Indiana 3,733
17 Colorado 3,437
18 Mississippi 3,250
19 Georgia 3,056
20 Virginia 2,937
21 Kansas 2,458
22 New Mexico 2,417
23 Washington 2,403
24 New Hampshire 2,324
25 Tennessee 2,258
26 Ohio 2,120
27 Minnesota 2,092
28 Alabama 2,072
29 Nevada 1,997
30 North Dakota 1,991
31 Utah 1,985
32 Florida 1,907
33 Wisconsin 1,789
34 California 1,759
35 Missouri 1,633
36 Arizona 1,563
37 South Carolina 1,513
38 Kentucky 1,501
39 Vermont 1,484
40 North Carolina 1,436
41 Texas 1,413
42 Arkansas 1,339
43 Idaho 1,265
44 Oklahoma 1,165
45 Wyoming 1,155
46 Maine 1,087
47 Oregon 779
48 West Virginia 763
49 Puerto Rico 706
50 Alaska 519
51 Hawaii 440
52 Montana 429

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 District of Columbia 231
2 Rhode Island 211
3 South Dakota 177
4 New Jersey 168
5 Maryland 159
6 Delaware 155
7 Massachusetts 151
8 Illinois 142
9 Nebraska 128
10 Connecticut 126
11 New York 110
12 Virginia 106
13 Minnesota 101
14 Iowa 96
15 Pennsylvania 79
16 Indiana 74
17 Louisiana 68
18 Mississippi 65
19 Colorado 62
20 New Mexico 62
21 Tennessee 55
22 Alabama 52
23 New Hampshire 52
24 Ohio 50
25 Wisconsin 47
26 Kansas 46
27 Utah 46
28 Georgia 42
29 California 41
30 Michigan 40
31 North Dakota 40
32 Arizona 39
33 North Carolina 37
34 Texas 35
35 Washington 33
36 Arkansas 32
37 Kentucky 30
38 Florida 27
39 South Carolina 27
40 Missouri 24
41 Maine 21
42 Nevada 19
43 Oregon 17
44 Oklahoma 15
45 Wyoming 14
46 Idaho 10
47 Puerto Rico 10
48 West Virginia 8
49 Vermont 3
50 Alaska 1
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,388
2 New Jersey 1,048
3 Connecticut 843
4 Massachusetts 741
5 Louisiana 482
6 District of Columbia 464
7 Michigan 459
8 Rhode Island 405
9 Pennsylvania 300
10 Maryland 278
11 Illinois 274
12 Delaware 231
13 Indiana 228
14 Colorado 171
15 Mississippi 146
16 Georgia 133
17 Washington 125
18 Ohio 116
19 Minnesota 104
20 Nevada 101
21 New Mexico 99
22 Virginia 99
23 New Hampshire 97
24 Iowa 85
25 Vermont 84
26 Missouri 83
27 Alabama 82
28 Florida 80
29 Arizona 74
30 Kentucky 72
31 California 71
32 Wisconsin 70
33 Oklahoma 69
34 South Carolina 67
35 Kansas 59
36 North Carolina 54
37 Nebraska 51
38 Maine 48
39 North Dakota 47
40 Idaho 39
41 Texas 39
42 South Dakota 38
43 Tennessee 36
44 Puerto Rico 35
45 Arkansas 31
46 West Virginia 31
47 Oregon 30
48 Utah 21
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 19
2 New Jersey 13
3 Connecticut 12
4 District of Columbia 11
5 New York 11
6 Rhode Island 9
7 Louisiana 6
8 Maryland 6
9 Michigan 6
10 Illinois 5
11 Delaware 4
12 Indiana 4
13 New Mexico 4
14 Minnesota 3
15 Pennsylvania 3
16 Iowa 2
17 Mississippi 2
18 New Hampshire 2
19 Alabama 1
20 Arizona 1
21 California 1
22 Colorado 1
23 Florida 1
24 Georgia 1
25 Kentucky 1
26 Missouri 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 Nevada 1
29 North Carolina 1
30 North Dakota 1
31 Ohio 1
32 South Carolina 1
33 South Dakota 1
34 Virginia 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Montana 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 120,790 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 72,506 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 72,251 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 58,671 4 99
Cass Indiana 40,489 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,329 239 92
Richland South Carolina 2,691 575 81
Pierce Washington 1,898 797 74
Orange California 1,142 1186 62
York South Carolina 861 1473 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,696 2 99
Early Georgia 2,552 3 99
Nassau New York 1,787 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,785 5 99
Richland South Carolina 137 459 85
Pierce Washington 69 772 75
Davidson Tennessee 50 933 70
Orange California 24 1266 59
York South Carolina 18 1367 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons